Amy Wohl's Opinions

What is the Internet

At regular intervals I get into a discussion about what the Internet is, or what it's for, or how it's changing everything.

Some of those discussions are with people who are not "into" technology.  You might think that means my elderly uncle or someone's grandma, but that's not necessarily true.  There are plenty of functioning adults a lot younger and engaged in productive work who ignore technology as much as possible.  There are the successful authors who still write their books in pencil on paper (I suspect they'd use clay tablets if they could) or with manual typewriters and the executives who avoid email by having their assistants print it out so they can read it.  I know, that sounds really weird.

They are a dying breed because our children and grandchildren are born with a cell phone attached to their ear and an Internet connection running 24/7 and they can't imagine life without ubiquitous connectivity.

To tell you the truth, neither can I.  I divide my friends these days by a simple (and invisble -- to them) test.  Whenever we have guests, it usually takes about 10 minutes before someone has a fact they can't remember, a question that needs answering, or the date or place for an event we'd like to consider attending.  Some of our guests either whip out an iPhone (or whatever their device of choice might be) or ask me where the computer is (conveniently located in my office, a few steps from the living room).  Of course, our whole condo is wirelessly connected and there are portables that you can use if you don't want to leave the room.  I assume that people who say they'll have to remember to check that out rather than instantly going to the web belong to a different set of people than I do.  Sort of a pre-Internet mentality.

Then there are the endless discussions among analysts and technology writers (best late at night after a few drinks) about whether we are going to get rid of books, whether the Internet is making people smarter or dumber, and whether social networks are a fad or a new way of life.

I just read a brilliant article by David Weinberg, author of several seminal books on where we are in the world of the Internet and how we got there.  It's from a speech he gave in China recently, and I recommend it whole-heartedly to you.  I also recommend his books, The Cluetrain Manifesto, Small Pieces Loosely Joined, and Everything is Miscellaneous for their insightful and well written thoughts.

Creatively Thinking

I just saw one of those little footnotes on Silicon Valley.com that I usually ignore, but I'm baby sitting the Comcast man so I decided to indulge myself.  You should indulge yourself too by going to Europeana.  Right now you can't actually see the site -- it was so popular on launch that it crashed, but you can see an amazing video and sign up to be notified for the site relaunch.  What is it?  access to all things European and digital -- libraries, museums, et al.  I can't wait.

In the meantime, you can feast your eyes on some of these - there are dozens of museums and tours at http://www.virtualfreesites.com/museums.museums.html -- just ignore the ads and go to the bottom of the first page for the list of sites.  Each one works differently, so you have to be patient about figuring out ther navigation.

It is good fun for a snowy day -- which believe it or not, here in Philadelphia on November 21, I'm looking out my window at real snow!  (Soon to melt, I'm hoping.)

Is it the Best or the Worst of Times for SaaS?

I've been stating strongly that this is the best of times for SaaS.  In an economic downturn, companies should -- and do -- find a solution that requires no capital investment and little or no labor very appealing.  When you add the fact that it can often get projects started more quickly, it's easy to see why it's so popular. 

On the other hand, SaaS is part of the larger economy and is affected by the downturn, too.  Read what Phil Wainewright wrote about Digital Railroad's failture (they were a photo storage site for commercial photographers) and you'll see why even cloud users need a back-up scheme.

Others are concerned that companies will cut or freeze not just purchased software but all IT expenses, including SaaS.  Perhaps, when they're in the first throes of trying to figure out what's happened and what to do.  But then they realize that they're still in business and that means continuing to get work done -- as efficiently and cost-effectively as possible.  That's where SaaS shines.

I'd expect that we'll see some enterprise SaaS IT managers who were cold to SaaS discovering that it's more useful than they thought much sooner than we expected.  This won't necessarily expand the SaaS market in the long run, but it may make it mature more quickly.

SaaS also offers modern, sophisticated software that permits managers better insights into their business and better control without the long lead times and big investments of on-premises software.  This can be helpful to firms of any size, but especially to smaller and mid-market firms which might otherwise have to do without such help.

We'll have to wait to see how this turns out, but not, I suspect, very long.  SaaS offers quick results and I think we'll be seeing some of them fairly soon.

Book on SaaS released 10/15/08

Succeeding at SaaS: Computing in the Cloud, Amy D. Wohl’s new book on the SaaS market is now available. It is both an overview of the SaaS market and a series of recommendations for ISVs, platform vendors, and customers who want to participate in it. The centerpiece of the book is 22 interviews I conducted with these market participants, illustrating the state of the SaaS market and its direction.

 

The book is filled with advice based on my consulting practice and my observations of the industry.  Look closely and you may find ideas from this blog.  The book includes both a brief history of the market and its precedents, a definition of cloud computing and its relationship to SaaS, and a discussion of their likely futures.

 

If you click here, you can preview the book (click again on the book title to see more information) and, if you like, purchase a copy.  I’d like very much to hear what you think of it.

 

Amy D. Wohl

Editor

Google Chrome Has Arrived

With some trouble in finding its download (I just downloaded off a Finnish site, I think), I have just downloaded the much-touted IE-killer Google's Chrome browser. Of course, the issue isn't whether it can steal some of Microsoft's browser market share (it probably can do that), but rather whether it can establish itself as a quasi-operating system platform for web applications written in JavaScript.

Already we are hearing from developers who do their development just that way and who are cheering Chrome on.

Chrome is in Beta and it's early days with many features only partly implemented (if at all), but I suspect we'll be hearing rather a lot about it anyway. Google is a very big competitor in the Internet market.

Authoring Knowledge

Wikipedia has always been a thorn in the side of scholars because no one knows who has written the information or who has edited it.  That makes it hard to judge the value of the information, without know the credentials of the writer.

An academic, Dr. Robert Hoffman, has suggested that a new uber-wiki, where all knowledge is signed by its author (including edits) and where it is rated by readers would be more creditable.  You can read about it in a brief note in The Register or in a scholarly article in Nature Genetics (ref: Nature Genetics 40, 1047 - 1051 (2008), doi:10.1038/ng.f.217). 

However, I think his idea may (in the nature of how things happen on the web) have already been overcome by events since Google's Knols seem to be exactly what he's describing -- or very close to it.  If you haven't checked them out, do.  The best way to check out a reference work, of course, is to look at an area you know very well and to see how well they do.  I checked out the articles on Diabetes (which I have and know a great deal about as a consequence); the articles are amazingly detailed and if there is an error I couldn't find it.

Of course, any new venture into building a knowledge data base will run into the fact that Wikipedia has a huge number of articles and building a new set of articles will take a long time, but having a second (and signed) resource sounds like a great idea.  I'm thinking about writing a couple of knols myself.

Electronic Tools need Tethers

love my electronic tools but I seem to need a better way of holding on to them.  So far, I have lost three cell phones (including my current Blackberry) and I thought I lost a Kindle (Amazon book reader), although it mysteriously reappeared several months later, after I had replaced it.

The problem is I have entirely too many things to keep track of.  On my last trip to Europe (a boondoggle to Amsterdam where my hosts, tool providers Servoy, were incrediblly hospitable while they showed us their software, toured us around Amsterdam, and fed us wonderful lfood), I had my Sony Viao laptop (with its accessories), my Kindle (ditto), and my Blackberry.  I didn't take my digital camera because it was just too much to carry (and I thought I would take snapshots with my phone). 

The phone disappeared somewhere between my house and the gate at Philadelphia airport when I hunted for it, wanting to make a last minute call.  I assumed it was at home, but unless it was keeping company with the recently reappeared Kindle, it's gone.  I have to go shopping for a new one this week.

I couldn't use the Sony or the Kindle in my Amsterdam hotel because none of the conversion plugs I had carried with me (a whole bag full) would both fit into the Dutch outlets and connect to my plugs.  Fortunately, Servoy's gracious marketing person, Brenda Christiansen, came to the rescue, with hotel-supplied conversion plugs. 

I feel like I"m back in the early 80's when I once gave a speech about the importability of portable computers by carrying one onto the stage together with a large suitcase, filled with all the stuff you might need to use it -- modems, wires, tools to get into the phone's innards, and so forth. 

I want freedom.  How about a device for the road that does it all so I don't have to carry all this stuff?  Or some little chains to tether one tool to the other?

I know it's not realistic to think that I'd like to speak into the same device that offers an adequately sized screen and keyboard, but I think I'd be willing to make some compromises--and soon, please!

Equipping Your Home Office

Microsoft is not satisfied with 500 million Office users; they want more.  Actually, I think they are following the "not let a single sparrow fall unnoticed" theory of the universe.  However you do computing, however you prefer to acquire software, whatever level of software you prefer, Microsoft wants to be your office (deliberate small "o") software supplier.

Hence, Equipt, a new version of Microsoft Office 2007 targeted at the Home and Student user who doesn't want to pay for a permanent copy, but prefers to buy a subscription for $69 a year, including Word, Excel, PowerPoint and OneNote for personal and school projects; Windows Live OneCare, the all-in-one security and PC management service; Windows Live tools, such as Windows Live Mail, Windows Live Messenger and Windows Live Photo Gallery, and Office Live Workspace, a new service from Microsoft that saves documents to a dedicated online Workspace permitting them to be shared with friends and classmates. Version upgrades of of Office and Windows Live OneCare are included in the Equipt subscription.

The downside is, it's a subscription and it only works while you pay for it.  Stop and you can still read your documents, but you can't edit them or create new ones.  OneCare upgrades and services would stop.  Like other Home and Student licenses, it covers three PC's in a household -- say the desktop in the family room, the laptop in Dad's den, and the laptop Johnny takes to school.  Johnny can take his laptop off to college and still be covered, until he changes he permanent address.  Theoretically, he when then no longer be a member of the household (although how Microsoft would know this, I'm not certain). 

This is not intended for small business (which many analysts were expecting to see a new Microsoft Office offering in the subscription or on-line vein arriving in the market around now).  The license precludes this edition of Microsoft Office being used for commercial (for-profit) use.  My Microsoft contact pointed out (we had a few conversations about the details of the announcement) that since Microsoft 2007 Office for Home and Students does not include Outlook (it does include Windows LiveMail to manage email as well as an IM manager), it wouldn't appeal to business users; of course, one could add a copy of Outlook, but at $109 and up that would probably make the combo less appealing.

Please note that this is not a SaaS product (although it has a SaaS component, in line with all of Microsoft's current Office offerings).  The office parts come in a box (currently soon to be available from Circuit City and then from others in the channel); this is traditional desktop software, running on your PC.  The add-on services run on Microsoft servers in the cloud (e.g., OneCare and the shared document service).  Microsoft wants you to think of this as software (on the desk) plus services (in the cloud).

Will this work?  We're not sure to whom it will appeal.  It means you get built-in upgrades (which most home users don't bother with).  Assuming a home user would keep his software for three years (they usually keep it for as long as they keep their computer, typically four to five years), they'd pay $210, more than the cost of a regular Home and Student package (they could almost buy it over again), less than higher-end Office offerings. If they usually keep their software (without upgrades) for five years, this would probaby not be economical (at $345 for a five year subscription) unless they value the upgrade and security software Equipt includes.

We suspect it will eventually end up in OEM bundles with 90-day or longer free trials and many reminders to sign up for the subscription with a credit card, once the user has already put his documents and spreadsheets into the software.  That might work -- and the user could always downgrade to MS Works or upgrade to a regular Office license without much fuss, we suspect. 

A Billg Obsession

The press (and the blogosphere) seem obsessed with Bill Gates'  "retirement."  There are dozens of articles, some quite long, and thousands of comments, some expressing agreement or contrary points of view, many offering corrections to details.

If you're looking for a long and historical overview, you might like this one.  The comments are as much fun as the article, which does have a number of small details slightly off.

I could summarize all the articles I've read this way:

• Is Bill a visionary or just a very good businessman?  (I'd say a little of the former and a great deal of the latter.)
• What did Microsoft accomplish and how much of it is original?  (Note that what MS accomplished is a matter of historical record.  You can argue about its importance but not about what happened.  The how much is original argument is different.  It shows a rather touching naivety about whether it matters whether you invent what you eventually very successfully productize and market or whether you acquire it from its inventor.  In a time where almost all mature companies do a great deal of acquisition, the real focus should be on whether they're good at managing acquisitions.)
• What did Microsoft actually popularize that other companies did first (but were less successful marketing?  (I'm tempted to say that's nice but why should I care?  The world is littered with companies who had good ideas they couldn't successfully market because of timing or lack of resources or lack of understanding of their market.  It's not unusual in any market -- not just technology -- for another company to come alone and harvest good, but previously unsuccessful, ideas.  For the record, the ones mentioned most often are the Windows GUI interface (from Xerox and Apple) and the NT operating system (based on DEC's VAX, according to many)).
• Someone needs to note that Bill Gates has NOT left Microsoft.  He's merely stepped back from his day-to-day involvement and his high-profile role as Microsoft's public face.  He plans to spend 20% of his time with the company and is still its Chairman and largest stockholder.  That means he'll still have a significant role in many important MS decisions.

I'm hoping that this focus on Bill Gates and his long (and historical) MS career will soon pass and that we can focus instead on what MS is doing as it moves forward.  There's so much to keep track of that this focus on MS history, while interesting, is really a distraction.  I have several MS stories I want to write (about their position on SOA and their rising interest in interoperability) which are sitting on the back burner.  But there's always next week, I guess.

Microsoft AB (After Bill)

Every since I spoke with the Seattle P-I for a Bill's leaving Microsoft story, I've been thinking about what to write.  My comment to the reporter was, "It's the end of an era."  And it is.  Whatever Microsoft does in the next thirty years I suspect its style and impact is going to be very different than it was under billg.

Since I've been in the business for 34 years I've watched Microsoft appear on the scene (no, I didn't notice it at first), seeing it first when the NCC (the National Computer Conference for those of you too young to remember) first allowed PC's to exhibit in the late 70's.  I've been to dozens of Microsoft announcements and conferences (remember the medieval fair for Windows 95?, the eerie announcement in a locked-down New York City just after 9-11?), and done some consulting from time to time.  Like most of us who follow the computer industry Microsoft has never been far from my thoughts and has often been dead center.

It's hard to separate Microsoft, the company, from Bill Gates outsized personality and grand vision.  Of course, Microsoft will have a second act; there are plenty of smart, skilled people in place -- and Bill isn't exactly leaving his biggest investment.  On the other hand, the world is changing, not just Microsoft's management, and taken in context that means that inevitabily Microsoft's next stage will be different. 

How?  With such a big company that is hard to predict.  They have too many options.  Should they go upscale and focus more on enterprise-level products and services?  Down to the consumer market?  Out to the emerging markets in China, India, and South America?  I'm pretty sure of one thing.  Even a company as big and as successful as Microsoft needs some focus.  It's hard to do everything at once and do it well.  (That's why, for example, IBM bowed out of first the consumer business and then the PC business.  Even very big companies need to focus.)

In any case, I recommend the fabulous detail and great reporting the Seattle P-I did for this historic occasion.  I think you'll particularly enjoy the timeline with photos, emails and other tidbits they put together.  It reminds me how far we've all come and how many things we've shared.  I don't miss MS-DOS or Windows 1.0 but it's fun to think about when things happened and how we got here, particularly as a jumping-off point to where Microsoft -- and the rest of us -- might head next.